Bank ABC: Financial Health Baseline
Before subjecting the bank to stress, we establish its current "Business as Usual" (BAU) position. These key performance indicators show a financially sound and resilient institution, well above regulatory minimums set by Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK).
Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR)
18.0%
OJK Minimum: ~8-14%
NPL (Gross)
2.5%
OJK Threshold: 5%
Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR)
150%
OJK Minimum: 100%
Return on Assets (ROA)
1.5%
Industry Average: ~1.2%
Defining Severe but Plausible Stress Scenarios
The core of stress testing is to simulate extreme market conditions. We apply two distinct, severe scenarios to quantify their impact on Bank ABC's capital, asset quality, and liquidity.
Scenario A: Severe Economic Recession
- GDP Contraction: Sharp -4% drop in national GDP.
- Credit Defaults: Widespread corporate and retail loan defaults.
- Asset Devaluation: Property and investment values fall significantly.
Scenario B: Sudden Liquidity Shock
- Deposit Run: 25% of retail deposits withdrawn in a short period.
- Market Freeze: Interbank lending market becomes inaccessible.
- Reputation Damage: Negative news triggers a crisis of confidence.
Stress Test Impact Analysis
The charts below illustrate the direct impact of each scenario on the bank's core metrics, comparing them against the healthy baseline. This analysis reveals the primary vulnerabilities the Recovery Plan must address.
Impact on Capital & Profitability
The recession scenario severely erodes capital (CAR) and pushes the bank into a loss (ROA), triggering capital-related recovery options. The liquidity shock has a less severe, but still significant, impact on profitability.
Impact on Liquidity & Asset Quality
The liquidity shock causes a critical breach of the LCR minimum, while the recession leads to a spike in Non-Performing Loans (NPL) above the regulatory ceiling. Each scenario triggers different types of recovery actions.
Recovery Plan Activation Triggers
The Recovery Plan is not activated arbitrarily. It is governed by clear triggers linked to the key metrics. When a stress test shows a metric breaching its 'Crisis' threshold, the plan dictates which recovery options must be considered.
Stress Event Occurs
Recession or Liquidity Shock
Metrics Breach Thresholds
e.g., CAR < 10% OR LCR < 100%
Activate Recovery Plan Options
Board of Directors convenes to execute pre-defined actions based on the specific breach.
For Capital Breach (Low CAR)
Capital Injection, Divestment of Assets, Halt Dividends.
For Liquidity Breach (Low LCR)
Emergency Funding, Sale of Liquid Assets, Halt New Lending.
Measuring Recovery Option Effectiveness
The final step is to model the impact of a recovery action. This demonstrates the plan's viability by showing a clear path back to a stable and compliant position, even after a severe shock.
Capital Restoration Post-Recession
In the recession scenario, Bank ABC's CAR falls to a critical 9.0%. The Recovery Plan calls for a capital injection. This simulation shows that the action is effective, raising the CAR back to a much healthier 12.5%, safely above the regulatory minimum.